Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.

Functional SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive CD4+ T cells established in early childhood decline with age.

Pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells have been identified in SARS-CoV-2-unexposed individuals, potentially modulating COVID-19 and vaccination outcomes. Here, we provide evidence that functional cross-reactive memory CD4+ T cell immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is established in early childhood, mirroring early seroconversion with seasonal human coronavirus OC43. Humoral and cellular immune responses against OC43 and SARS-CoV-2 were assessed in SARS-CoV-2-unexposed children (paired samples at age two and six) and adults (age 26 to 83). Pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cell responses targeting spike, nucleocapsid, and membrane were closely linked to the frequency of OC43-specific memory CD4+ T cells in childhood. The functional quality of the cross-reactive memory CD4+ T cell responses targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike, but not nucleocapsid, paralleled OC43-specific T cell responses. OC43-specific antibodies were prevalent already at age two. However, they did not increase further with age, contrasting with the antibody magnitudes against HKU1 (ß-coronavirus), 229E and NL63 (α-coronaviruses), rhinovirus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and influenza virus, which increased after age two. The quality of the memory CD4+ T cell responses peaked at age six and subsequently declined with age, with diminished expression of interferon (IFN)-γ, interleukin (IL)-2, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), and CD38 in late adulthood. Age-dependent qualitative differences in the pre-existing SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cell responses may reflect the ability of the host to control coronavirus infections and respond to vaccination.

Evolution, geographic spreading, and demographic distribution of Enterovirus D68.

Worldwide outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) in 2014 and 2016 have caused serious respiratory and neurological disease. We collected samples from several European countries during the 2018 outbreak and determined 53 near full-length genome ('whole genome') sequences. These sequences were combined with 718 whole genome and 1,987 VP1-gene publicly available sequences. In 2018, circulating strains clustered into multiple subgroups in the B3 and A2 subclades, with different phylogenetic origins. Clusters in subclade B3 emerged from strains circulating primarily in the US and Europe in 2016, though some had deeper roots linking to Asian strains, while clusters in A2 traced back to strains detected in East Asia in 2015-2016. In 2018, all sequences from the USA formed a distinct subgroup, containing only three non-US samples. Alongside the varied origins of seasonal strains, we found that diversification of these variants begins up to 18 months prior to the first diagnostic detection during a EV-D68 season. EV-D68 displays strong signs of continuous antigenic evolution and all 2018 A2 strains had novel patterns in the putative neutralizing epitopes in the BC- and DE-loops. The pattern in the BC-loop of the USA B3 subgroup had not been detected on that continent before. Patients with EV-D68 in subclade A2 were significantly older than patients with a B3 subclade virus. In contrast to other subclades, the age distribution of A2 is distinctly bimodal and was found primarily among children and in the elderly. We hypothesize that EV-D68's rapid evolution of surface proteins, extensive diversity, and high rate of geographic mixing could be explained by substantial reinfection of adults. Better understanding of evolution and immunity across diverse viral pathogens, including EV-D68 and SARS-CoV-2, is critical to pandemic preparedness in the future.

Neutralisation sensitivity of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, which was first identified in November, 2021, spread rapidly in many countries, with a spike protein highly diverged from previously known variants, and raised concerns that this variant might evade neutralising antibody responses. We therefore aimed to characterise the sensitivity of the omicron variant to neutralisation. METHODS: For this cross-sectional study, we cloned the sequence encoding the omicron spike protein from a diagnostic sample to establish an omicron pseudotyped virus neutralisation assay. We quantified the neutralising antibody ID50 (the reciprocal dilution that produces 50% inhibition) against the omicron spike protein, and the fold-change in ID50 relative to the spike of wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (ie, the pandemic founder variant), for one convalescent reference plasma pool (WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin [20/136]), three reference serum pools from vaccinated individuals, and two cohorts from Stockholm, Sweden: one comprising previously infected hospital workers (17 sampled in November, 2021, after vaccine rollout and nine in June or July, 2020, before vaccination) and one comprising serum from 40 randomly sampled blood donors donated during week 48 (Nov 29-Dec 5) of 2021. Furthermore, we assessed the neutralisation of omicron by five clinically relevant monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). FINDINGS: Neutralising antibody responses in reference sample pools sampled shortly after infection or vaccination were substantially less potent against the omicron variant than against wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (seven-fold to 42-fold reduction in ID50 titres). Similarly, for sera obtained before vaccination in 2020 from a cohort of convalescent hospital workers, neutralisation of the omicron variant was low to undetectable (all ID50 titres <20). However, in serum samples obtained in 2021 from two cohorts in Stockholm, substantial cross-neutralisation of the omicron variant was observed. Sera from 17 hospital workers after infection and subsequent vaccination had a reduction in average potency of only five-fold relative to wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (geometric mean ID50 titre 495 vs 105), and two donors had no reduction in potency. A similar pattern was observed in randomly sampled blood donors (n=40), who had an eight-fold reduction in average potency against the omicron variant compared with wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (geometric mean ID50 titre 369 vs 45). We found that the omicron variant was resistant to neutralisation (50% inhibitory concentration [IC50] >10 µg/mL) by mAbs casirivimab (REGN-10933), imdevimab (REGN-10987), etesevimab (Ly-CoV016), and bamlanivimab (Ly-CoV555), which form part of antibody combinations used in the clinic to treat COVID-19. However, S309, the parent of sotrovimab, retained most of its activity, with only an approximately two-fold reduction in potency against the omicron variant compared with ancestral D614G SARS-CoV-2 (IC50 0·1-0·2 µg/mL). INTERPRETATION: These data highlight the extensive, but incomplete, evasion of neutralising antibody responses by the omicron variant, and suggest that boosting with licensed vaccines might be sufficient to raise neutralising antibody titres to protective levels. FUNDING: European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, SciLifeLab, and the Erling-Persson Foundation.

Re-emergence of enterovirus D68 in Europe after easing the COVID-19 lockdown, September 2021.

We report a rapid increase in enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, with 139 cases reported from eight European countries between 31 July and 14 October 2021. This upsurge is in line with the seasonality of EV-D68 and was presumably stimulated by the widespread reopening after COVID-19 lockdown. Most cases were identified in September, but more are to be expected in the coming months. Reinforcement of clinical awareness, diagnostic capacities and surveillance of EV-D68 is urgently needed in Europe.

Interactions between seasonal human coronaviruses and implications for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: A retrospective study in Stockholm, Sweden, 2009-2020.

OBJECTIVES: The four seasonal coronaviruses 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1 are frequent causes of respiratory infections and show annual and seasonal variation. Increased understanding about these patterns could be informative about the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Results from PCR diagnostics for the seasonal coronaviruses, and other respiratory viruses, were obtained for 55,190 clinical samples analyzed at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, between 14 September 2009 and 2 April 2020. RESULTS: Seasonal coronaviruses were detected in 2130 samples (3.9 %) and constituted 8.1 % of all virus detections. OC43 was most commonly detected (28.4 % of detections), followed by NL63 (24.0 %), HKU1 (17.6 %), and 229E (15.3 %). The overall fraction of positive samples was similar between seasons, but at species level there were distinct biennial alternating peak seasons for the Alphacoronaviruses, 229E and NL63, and the Betacoronaviruses, OC43 and HKU1, respectively. The Betacoronaviruses peaked earlier in the winter season (Dec-Jan) than the Alphacoronaviruses (Feb-Mar). Coronaviruses were detected across all ages, but diagnostics were more frequently requested for paediatric patients than adults and the elderly. OC43 and 229E incidence was relatively constant across age strata, while that of NL63 and HKU1 decreased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Both the Alphacoronaviruses and Betacoronaviruses showed alternating biennial winter incidence peaks, which suggests some type of immune mediated interaction. Symptomatic reinfections in adults and the elderly appear relatively common. Both findings may be of relevance for the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2.

Clinical phenotypes and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2, influenza, RSV and seven other respiratory viruses: a retrospective study using complete hospital data.

BACKGROUND: An understanding of differences in clinical phenotypes and outcomes COVID-19 compared with other respiratory viral infections is important to optimise the management of patients and plan healthcare. Herein we sought to investigate such differences in patients positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared with influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other respiratory viruses. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of hospitalised adults and children (≤15 years) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus A/B, RSV, rhinovirus, enterovirus, parainfluenza viruses, metapneumovirus, seasonal coronaviruses, adenovirus or bocavirus in a respiratory sample at admission between 2011 and 2020. RESULTS: A total of 6321 adult (1721 SARS-CoV-2) and 6379 paediatric (101 SARS-CoV-2) healthcare episodes were included in the study. In adults, SARS-CoV-2 positivity was independently associated with younger age, male sex, overweight/obesity, diabetes and hypertension, tachypnoea as well as better haemodynamic measurements, white cell count, platelet count and creatinine values. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 was associated with higher 30-day mortality as compared with influenza (adjusted HR (aHR) 4.43, 95% CI 3.51 to 5.59), RSV (aHR 3.81, 95% CI 2.72 to 5.34) and other respiratory viruses (aHR 3.46, 95% CI 2.61 to 4.60), as well as higher 90-day mortality, ICU admission, ICU mortality and pulmonary embolism in adults. In children, patients with SARS-CoV-2 were older and had lower prevalence of chronic cardiac and respiratory diseases compared with other viruses. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 is associated with more severe outcomes compared with other respiratory viruses, and although associated with specific patient and clinical characteristics at admission, a substantial overlap precludes discrimination based on these characteristics.